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The Saints year could be the most interesting to watch after the suspensions, the Falcons are still trying to get over the play-off hump, the Panthers might be the big surprise, and the Bucs start over again. Here's my NFC South preview. Feel free to tell me how full of sh** I am: rob@94rock.com.
The Matt Ryan era has been strong enough to make everyone forget the Bobby Petrino/Michael Vick abortion of four years ago. However, the team still hasn't been able to get over the hump when it comes to a play-off win. There are two brand new coordinators in town in Dirk Koettner (offense) and Mike Nolan (defense). There's no question that Ryan has the talent, and he's got big game receivers around him in Julio Jones and Roddy White. Age could be a concern with runningback Michael Turner and tight end Tony Gonzales. They'll want to take some carries off of Turner's plate, which means Ryan will air it our more in '12. There were a few nice additions on defense in Lofa Tatupu at linebacker and Asante Samuel at corner, Atlanta knows how to win close games too. There's no question the Falcons can move the ball, there's no question the Falcons can score. I still think defense is a concern, but hiring Nolan is a step in the right direction. The fact that they face Drew Brees and Cam Newton twice a year will expose the secondary, or make it big game. I'm not incredibly impressed with the D overall, and I think that will be the team's flaw. If they make the postseason, the defense may again be the problem.
This might be the most interesting team to watch this season. After head coach Sean Payton received a year suspension for the Bounty Gate Scandal (and a few players as well), the team is in a precarious situation. They did get Drew Brees re-signed, and he'll play this year with a huge chip on his shoulder. Brees has some big time weapons on his side, as usual. Tight end Jimmy Graham was huge last year, and Darren Sproles was as well. The Saints like the runningback-by-committee, and receiver-by-committee approach. It doesn't seem to matter, Brees always finds one guy to step up every game. Defensively, there's enough talent there to keep the team in games. Losing Jonathon Vilma will hurt, but once he returns, this team will be ready to make a run again. Picking up Curtis Lofton from Atlanta at linebacker will help. He led the Falcons in tackles last season. They also added Ben Grubbs on the offensive line from Baltimore. There were some nice free agent acquisitions this offseason. Overcoming the loss of a head coach, a GM, and one of the best defensive players, will hurt. But, I have a feeling this team will rally and come out with a huge point to prove. Expect big things once the pains of dealing with the suspensions even out a bit.
The Panthers defense gave up a lot of points in 2011. Not many upgrades were made to improve it either. A few key players (Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, Ron Edwards) are all coming back from season-ending injuries. They're still fairly thin in front and in back. If things improve even a decent bit defensively, this team could surprise in a big way. The offense, led by Cam Newton, may have the biggest year this unit has ever had. They're solid at all skill positions, with vet Steve Smith anchoring the receiving corp, and the double-headed threat of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart now adds goalline battering ram Mike Tolbert. Tight end Greg Olsen could emerge as Newton's #2 target after Smith. There's no question the offense is set in most areas, especially if Newton can avoid the sophomore slump. It will come down to defense, and there's a decent amount of improvement that needs to happen. If those areas get addressed, don't be surprised if the Panthers make their first play-off appearance since 2008.
Could another rebuilding effort be under way in Tampa Bay? Last year was a big disappointment after a surprising 2010 campaign. Josh Freeman definitely took a step back, but adding receiver Vincent Jackson should help him get back to his rookie form. Veteran tight end Dallas Clark was also brought in. Now to find out who will emerge as the running threat. LaGarrette Blount has shown flashes, and Boise State runningback Doug Martin may emerge as the guy eventually. There are a few guys on this unit that may make a splash as a playmaker, and it's sorely needed. Last year's defense gave up 494 points, a franchise worst. Safety Mark Barron was a great draft pick for the team, and with vet Ronde Barber in the secondary with him to show him the ropes, expect to hear his name a lot. Ther rest of the unit is still pretty young, and with some potent offenses in their division, it may be another year before this team is back to a legit contender. If Mike Williams can quit dropping balls and Arrelius Benn continues to improve, Josh Freeman now has the weapons to score some points. There's some hope here, just not this season.
FINAL PREDICTIONS:
1. NEW ORLEANS
2. ATLANTA
3. CAROLINA
4. TAMPA BAY
At least the Redskins can kiss the John Beck/Rex Grossman era goodbye. It's been two straight seasons since the 'Skins weren't in the cellar in the NFC East, but with the drafting of Heisman winner Robert Griffin III, it could be time for a turnaround in D.C. Washington returns everyone from their defensive front seven, where they were strongest last season. They now boast a couple of new receivers in Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon to help aging vet Santana Moss. Roy Helu and Tim Hightower will split runningback duties. The only key loss was safety LaRon Landry. It's been five straight seasons with less than double digit wins, and three straight since they were at least at .500. Mike Shanahan wasn't brought in to keep this team in last place perenially. One key stat with the 'Skins: they lost six games by just one possession last season. They also swept the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants. Things might finally be headed in the right direction here, but don't expect too big a bite this season.
All the talk around Big D this offseason has been about the window closing on vets like Tony Romo, Jason Witten and DeMarcus Ware. Who can deny that's exactly what's happening? Injuries this summer during training camp have been key. Miles Austin's hamstring is back again, Dez Bryant has been hurt as well. Jason Witten's spleen is lacerated. In case nobody's noticed, the Cowboys top touchdown threat last year was Laurent Robinson, who left via free agency. The Cowboys are paper-thin at receiver, and injuries to the offensive line could make Tony Romo's season hellish. The good news: despite a major lack of depth, the secondary got a nice facelift, with Brandon Carr coming over from Kansas City ar corner and the drafting of Morris Claiborne out of LSU. Sean Lee will anchor the linebacking corp now, and Dan Conner comes over from Carolina to help in the middle with the departures of Keith Brooking and Brady James. The Cowboys signed six free agents in the offseason and hope all six are starters. Runningback DeMarco Murray could give the Cowboys their first 1,000 yard rusher since Julius Jones back in '06. But again, depth is a major concern with this team, and a few key injuries might derail a play-off run, which would make it three straight seasons since the Cowboys reached the postseason.
Besides the obvious concerns with Michael Vick's health, the Eagles have to also be concerned with the fact that the D blew fourth quarter leads five different times this season. I expected the Eagles to blow out Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo, but he's back, believe it or not. Philly did add linebacker DeMeco Ryans from Houston, and that's definitely a step in the right direction. The Eagles are anxious to drop the whole "Dream Team" thing from last season, and with DeSean Jackson assured another season in Philly, the specialists on offense are explosive. Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek team up with Jackson to give the Eagles a nice receiving corp, and runningback LeSean McCoy has turned into one of the top runningbacks in the league. Of course the concern is the health of quarterback Michael Vick. If Vick goes down (and based on past history I would expect it at some point), the Eagles season could grind to an immediate halt. If he can stay on the field, the Eagles are a definite play-off threat. This team is still young, and if Andy Reid can't get it done this season we could be seeing the last of him. 
